Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.

Shawn Thomas
Shawn Thomas

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